About the Project

It is the year 2040. What might NHS Scotland transportation look like 15 years from now?

These scenarios explore key uncertainties about how transport in NHS Scotland might change by 2040. They are not predictions. Instead, they illustrate the range of plausible futures shaped by different choices, challenges and innovations.

This project aims to support NHS Scotland to deliver a net-zero transport sector. These scenarios are useful to planners and policymakers because they help illuminate potential risks, opportunities and trade-offs under different conditions. By imagining how diverse factors – such as digital innovation, environmental policy and public expectations – might evolve, NHS Assure and NHS National Services Scotland can develop resilient strategies for the future.

“Living in times of continuous change and disruption – from global geopolitics to societal shifts and technological advancements – one thing is certain – we can’t predict the future. But we can try to make sense of it. Scenario planning is a process of disciplined imagination that invites stakeholders and participants to engage with and make sense of the future, particularly its uncertainties.” 

— Dr Tapinos, University of Strathclyde